I found Scott Adams recent blog post on Future Jobs quite interesting. He believes technical competency will always have a secure foothold in the marketplace, but if you are not technically inclined – learning the art of human persuasion is a good asset to have. I agree with this, especially since his definition of human persuasion is broad enough to cover not only sales, psychology, and public speaking, but design, management theory and entertainment as well.
The post made the front page of HackerNews a few days ago, and one of the top posts is by ramit, who seems to have an ideal background for what Adams suggests:
My major was STS (Science, Technology, and Society) with a minor in psychology. Then I studied sociology in grad school.
What I focused on was social influence, persuasion, and behavioral change. I took courses on negotiation, deception, cults, magic, minority influence, organizational development, group dynamics, arbitration, personality/social psychology, persuasive technology, and a ton more. I was a researcher in the Stanford Persuasive Technology Lab for years.
And I mixed it with practical applications of negotiations in the field.
The coursework has helped me dramatically in understanding the motivations, attitudes, and behaviors of others.
I still remember one of my Comm professors talking about how other technical disciplines tend to look down on areas like psych/comm. She said something I’ll never forget: “The value isn’t in the difficulty of the material, but the usefulness.”
Love the last quote. To expand on what Adams is proposing, I’m going to assume he agrees with me in that the point of education should be to ultimately provide skills and knowledge that will generate the most productive future output for individuals. In this light, its obvious that technical competency and human persuasion will be as relevant in 50 years as they are today. This is what most educational institutions mean when they claim they want to “teach you how to think.” Whether they teach that in earnest is up for debate, but the idea is correct. If you look at education as an investment, it will be hard to predict 10, 20, or 30 years out which particular sets of domain knowledge will be most critical to possess. What you want is to get good at the ability to acquire such knowledge if you need to, and to do that you need to become good at thinking. Teach a man to fish.
So why does Adams think science/engineering and human persuasion sit at the top? What they have in common is that they offer reliable models of reality. They have predicative power and contain insightful metaphors for a vast array of phenomena.
Here are some examples:
People generally behave in terms of their own self-interest. They also experience incentive-caused bias. When you separate those who take the risks from those who get the rewards, you will get excessive behavior. When persuading, appeal to a person’s interest, and not reason.
Systems Thinking is a problem solving methodology in engineering that treats cause and effect in cyclical manner rather than a linear one. You examine and focus on an entire system, rather than one specific pain point. One considers second- and third-order effects. A non-engineering application of this idea is to economics – the easing of long-term federal interest rates not to long ago. The subsequent effects, the shift in incentives, created disastrous second- and third-order effects.
Margin of Safety is a structural engineering concept. If you’re building a bridge, it makes sense to build it with extra capacity beyond the maximum loads you expect it to receive. Its a measure of robustness, able to handle unexpected loads, emergency situations, and any other random variable not accounted for. Value investor Ben Graham adopted this idea in his investing practice, buying securities priced below its intrinsic value. This minimized the risk of losing excess capital and factored in room for error in the inherently imprecise manner of evaluating a company’s intrinsic value.
In a sense, if you study these topics, you will be able to understand and explain a wide range of phenomena and actions. Obviously, the next question is, what are some other skills and knowledge one should spend the time to learn? Here are some I have in mind:
Science/Engineering and Human Psychology/Persuasion, as stated above.
History/Biographies – I think this is incredibly important. Not only does it make learning specific topics more interesting (for example, I’m studying probability at the moment, and reading about the history, how it came to be, and the mathematicians who contributed to the field all paint a much vivid picture of the topic vs. the excessively distilled formal and rigorous proofs I’m shown in the first few chapters of my textbook), but its a gold mine for lessons of failure, wisdom, and success. Did you know Mozart spent his money like a drunken sailor? That Carl Braun of the CF Braun Engineering company fired his accountants and had his engineers develop a system that eventually influenced the way modern accounting works?
Economics/Business/Financial History – History interpreted through the lens of finance is such an interesting topic. For anyone interested, I highly recommend the 4 hour PBS documentary, Ascent of Money as a entertaining and informative way to get started.
Philosophy/Rationality – Understanding the history of influential thinking that shape societal values, thoughts and sense of purpose. Studying philosophy as a way to manage temperament, and thinking systematically about one’s problems.
Would love to get feedback and more topics you think one should devote to studying.