I watched this over a year ago when it first hit YouTube and I’m surprised the viewcount hasn’t grown much higher since. A ton of prescient knowledge and analysis of the major paradigm shifts in the media industry. The two guests are Peter Chernin, former COO of News Corps, and CEO of Fox Entertainment Group and media-investor Gordon Crawford. They discuss many of the shifts, growth areas, and future business opportunities as the industry continues to evolve. Even if you have no interest in the business of media, I think its a great video because it demonstrates some sharp thinking and good insights.

Crawford at 52:20: “‘Star Trek’ probably will make no money, and ‘Hangover’ is going to make a gazillion dollars.”

The word design is used to describe a lot of things, and the title of “designer” is used in a lot of professions. A designer could be an engineer, an artist, or anyone really, tasked with the problem of creating something new. But generally, the term design is most commonly associated with those professions that are in the practical arts – architecture, industrial design, web design, fashion design, etc. This is what most people think when you say the words “design” and “designer.”

But whenever the topic of design is discussed, comments generally devolve into a discussion of aesthetics. So much so, that design is now synonymous with “what it looks like.”  If you ask a random person down the street, “what do you think of that building’s design?” you’ll pretty much get a response that comes from a purely aesthetic point of view. It’s either ugly or good looking. You’ll get a subjective opinion. And while people’s opinions of aesthetics may be valid, its fundamentally wrong to analyze an object’s design in such a way.

In other words, you shouldn’t have an “opinion” on design. No more than you should have an opinion on physics. Now design does not follow any universal laws or have the rigor of the hard sciences, but it certainly has a performative function. It must serve some utility and work within some constraints. Otherwise it is just art. Design can and should be measured against those parameters (utility and constraints). And in my opinion, not a lot of effort goes into teaching or developing a process for how to evaluate designs. What makes a good design? What is bad design?

Design is not just what it looks like and feels like. Design is how it works. -Steve Jobs

What are some great objects of design? The iPhone/iPod, the McLaren F1 roadcar, the Seattle Central Library, the original Mini Cooper, the Dyson vacuum, Google’s homepage, and of course, many many others. These were just off the top of my head.

Why these in particular? What do many of these these objects have in common? If you google any of these, you can form your own opinions of their aesthetics. Some of them are beautiful while others are dull or painfully eccentric. Bottom line is that its a subjective opinion, and has no value in this discussion.

So lets talk about their utility and constraints. Here are some common themes:

1/. These designs re-think first principles. The Seattle Library was a complete re-conceptualization of the modern library. The stuffy atmosphere of most libraries caused people to flock to Barnes and Nobles and Starbucks. It re-introduced an important social function of free public space that most libraries had done away with.  Dyson borrowed the cyclonic system he saw at a sawmill, and was able to develop a vacuum without bags or filters. Google’s homepage never had ads, unlike yahoo, msn, excite, etc.

2/. These designs feature single elements perform multiple function. Perhaps the clearest example of this is the new iPhone 4 steel band. It locks together the two exterior faces of the phone, provides mounting points for the internal components, provides access to speakers, charging pins, volume controls, power button, lock, headphone jack, it functions as multiple antennae, AND is able to be finished in a manner that is consistent with Apple’s current brushed metal forms.

3/. They balance constraints effectively. These may not be the best products of all time, but they are excellent examples of achieving many of their key tasks. The Mini Cooper’s small wheels not only reduced rotating mass (better efficiency), but it also allowed much more room in the cabin as a result of smaller wheel arches. The Seattle Central Library was not only able to bring the project in under budget, but it also maximized its interior space, created an innovative spiral book stacking system, develop a new role for the library in the city, and more than doubled its expected traffic, spurring new local economic activity from travelers and traffic.

4/. They communicate clear and obvious functions. None of the above need a user manual. The functions are presented in a way as to make its use obvious.

5/. Function influenced form. A blueprint for all the criteria a product needed to solve was clearly laid out, and that influence the shape or aesthetic it took. I urge everyone to check out the Seattle Library to see this at work. No one can logically come up with its exterior form as a starting point – but if you understand its functions, its volumetric constraints and utilitarian purpose, then you can see the facade as a logical development. Its also brilliantly a structural system that bolsters the building and its floors. The McLaren F1 was developed technically first. The optimal road car would be a center-steering, mid engine V12, light-weight, and naturally aspirated. Once its functional components were fitted out, a form was draped over it, which created its simple and timeless lines.

Of course, there could be an endless set of patterns we can find. But my main point is that design, like many other practical professions, should be measured in terms of performance, and not aesthetics. What those performance criteria are depends on the goal. But I think its a worthy exercise to formalize a set of parameters against which you can measure a product/object’s design. How well a particular object meets those criteria is how good it is designed.

Amazing article by Steven Johnson in the WallStreetJournal. Great ideas are formed by bricolage. Sandals made from recycled automobile tires. Prenatal incubators created from car parts. Johnson explains the process as very similar to the one carried out by evolution.

I haven’t watched it yet, but there is a TED Talk from Johnson about the same idea here:

http://www.ted.com/talks/steven_johnson_where_good_ideas_come_from.html

Its been a month since I’ve started blogging. Its nothing serious, but I think its a good time to review and share my own observations on it.

1/. I’m a slow reader and even slower writer. I’ve been trying to balance writing and not taking up too much time away from my other pursuits. I’ve noticed previous posts are somewhat jumbled and don’t have a clear flow. Sometimes I ramble. Most of these posts have been on the fly, so I going to try to develop more structure, organization, and start to create drafts. This might bring down my post frequency, but I think it will help me address those things I wish to work on – having better insights, writing clear and concisely, developing ideas and arguments. Improving those things are important to me. Hopefully the better I get, the frequency will go back up.

2/. Original content has been pretty light, and topics relevant to the subtitle have been few. This is something I’m going to work on. Unfortunately, you can’t schedule in “having insights” every week. So I’ll have to balance in-depth post with some lighter posts, sometimes even a quote, picture, or something. Great insights are everywhere, and they all don’t have to be article-length posts. There are some cool examples of industrial design/architecture that can explain more in a picture than you could possibly do with words.

3/. My main goal is to highlight knowledge that can lead to becoming a better thinker. I think thats a broad enough topic that I can cover things over many disciplines that interest me. But the only way to do that is to become more organized with knowledge acquisition. I need to develop a better schedule for studying specifically what I wish to develop ideas on. History of technology, business, engineering. I want to cover design, art, history. Biographies of interesting people. All under the light of “examples of good models of thinking/great insights.”  Just as useful is to examine examples of bad thinking/tragic mistakes.

4/. My writing has definitely gone up! I always admire great writing by others, the diversity of their styles, and clarity of ideas.  Perhaps what I wish to learn is to become that articulate. I’m constantly frustrated by the trouble I have putting to words the ideas that are in my head. A good portion of ideas in my mind don’t make sense, and get flushed out when written down. I found that to be a great exercise within itself. But the other half of ideas in my head don’t get articulated that well. This is something that will get better with more writing, reading, and studying other’s styles. This site is a good way to track my progress too.

5/. I’d like to thank everyone who visits this site, even if its just for a moment. Its not a particular goal of mine to become very popular or anything, but knowing other people read this, I hope you find something of value.

Dale Carnegie is most well known for his courses on interpersonal skills and his book, “How to Win Friends and Influence People.” He’s published a few other books as well ranging on topics from anxiety, leadership, and public speaking. The following is taken from one of the introductory chapters in his book, “How to Develop Self-Confidence And Influence People By Public Speaking.”

Public speaking is an interesting subject to study. A lot of people have anxiety about presenting, and speaking to an audience. Carnegie explains this fear simply as a product of ignorance and uncertainty. He then prescribes a formula on how to remove this fear:

“[Why do people have this fear?] A lack of confidence. And what causes that? It is the result of not knowing what you can really do. And not knowing what you can do is caused by a lack of experience. When you get a record of successful experience behind you, your fears will vanish.”

Sounds dead simple and common sensical. Successful experiences >> Knowing what you are capable of >> Confidence. But how many people take such a hardline approach to building confidence in themselves in this manner? Whether its with public speaking, acting, or any other skill. How do you start having successful experiences? Well, you start with unsuccessful experiences. You turn those into learning moments and follow up with a few successful experiences. Soon enough, you’ll have enough breadth of experience to make educated and accurate inferences about your future performance. When you have to go up on stage, make a pitch to investors, or take the game winning shot, you’ll do so with a frame of reference that adequately defines all possible outcomes. By building a relatively stable track record of success, you’ll become better at turning haphazard circumstances into the type of ones you prefer and can control.

I think the trouble is starting down a path and knowing you must experience the possibility of failure to get to the other side. As a novice, whether its learning programming, painting, or how to sell – you tend to have a idealized and romanticized view of the nature of things in the domain you’re building skills in. The worst possible thing would be to experience repeat failure at the start of it, and shatter any possible notions you might have held about that specific domain. But failure is likely at the beginning. And I think its better to embrace it as a phase, rather than an indicator of ability.

Dave Chappelle on Inside the Actors Studio had a specifically relevant story. He talks about the first time he bombed at the famous APOLLO comedy club:

I still remember that boo. I had never been booed off stage before. I just remember looking out and seeing everybody booing. Everybody! Even old people. Who boo’s a child pursuing his dreams?! This is the meanest crowd in the world! Then that siren went off and the dude came out tap dancing. Sandman! I wanted to choke the shit out of him! And that was the best thing that ever happened to me, because before that time, I had never bombed…let alone get boo’d off stage. And bombing was horrifying! Nobody wants to get boo’d off stage!… But that night was liberating because I failed so far beyond my wildest nightmares of failing… and after that, I was fearless.

One of the best lessons I have taken from this is to learn indiscriminately from every experience, no matter if the lessons come in the form of success or failure. All you really need is to build on those experiences. It doesn’t matter if you have 10 failures in a row and 1 success, or failure after success after failure after success, etc. Each lesson must have extracted from it points for improving future performance and in the case of mistakes, the wisdom not repeat the same one again. I believe this is the best possible human learning algorithm you can have.

Driver is DC Shoes co-founder Ken Block. I’m a fan of eccentric career paths and a car nut. Successful entrepreneur to race car driver has to be on my list of awesome career transitions. What an amazing display of control, technique, and power.

My hero Charlie Munger recently spoke at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor. He’s partner to legendary investor Warren Buffett, and a genius (and billionaire) in his own right. He’s a sharp thinker and extolls the virtues of multi-disciplinary thinking. Before learning about him, I was stumbling around various subjects and topics without any formal system for organization, occasionally noticing confluencing ideas at random.  After reading about Munger, I found a more structured and useful system for learning topics over many different disciplines. He’s definitely influenced me in a major way and is in some ways an inspiration for this site. I’m going to cover him, his achievements, and his approach to learning (which sadly goes unasked at this event) in a future post.

While I am disappointed I couldn’t attend myself, I’m glad there is at least an online video available.

A Conversation with Charlie Munger

Time: 2 hrs. Requires Silverlight.

I plan to dive into the few books written by author Diane Vaughan at some point. She is a sociologist known for her book on the Challenger explosion and her role in the Columbia Space Shuttle disaster investigations. Her thesis suggested the root-cause for both disasters were based on organizational dynamics rather than engineering missteps. Considering that NASA/Aerospace engineering is as pure as a scientific pursuit as one can imagine, her applications of the social sciences into the incidents were quite insightful, and of course, her behavioral model carries weight beyond these particularly unfortunate events. Wikipedia highlights an interesting phenomena about both NASA missions:

[Thermal insulation, the same kind that caused the Columbia disaster,] had been observed falling off, in whole or in part, on many previous flights: STS-7 (1983), STS-27 (1988),[5] STS-32 (1990), STS-50 (1992), plus subsequent flights (STS-52 and -62) showing partial losses. In STS-27′s case, the damage was so severe that the spacecraft commander expected to die during reentry.[5] In addition, Protuberance Air Load (PAL) ramp foam has also shed pieces, plus spot losses from large-area foams. At least one previous strike caused no serious damage. NASA management came to refer to this phenomenon as “foam shedding.” As with the O-ring erosions that ultimately doomed the Challenger, NASA management became accustomed to these phenomena when no serious consequences resulted from these earlier episodes.

Vaughan proposed the idea of “Uncoupling Theory” in 1976, explaining the dynamics of relationship breakups. In this interview, she explains her observations and research:

I’m interested in the dark side of organizations : how things go wrong – mistakes, misconduct, disaster. Research indicates that troubles came not only from individual failures but also from organizational failures. The end of a relationship is an example of this, because a relationship is the smallest organization we can set-up. From that research, I traced, using interviews, how relationships came apart. It was a gradual transition, not a sudden break, where one person begins leaving the relationship socially and psychologically before the other. By the time the person being left behind realizes something is seriousy wrong, the first person is already gone in so many ways that the relationship is difficult to save.

When I first read this I was shocked at how useful the idea was, and how adequately it explains a large set of behavior.

If you have heard of slow boiling frog - that is normalization of deviance. The danger of negative and slow incremental changes is not only that they are subtle, but they are normalizing! The degradation of standards, habits, and performance continuously reach new (lower) norms. But you’re ability to perceive new norms remains low because incremental shifts generate no direct or strong negative feedback. An example: Missing a day of class couldn’t possibly affect your GPA. Letting a child’s bad behavior occasionally go unpunished should not be character forming. In NASA’s case, they were able to get away with a few failed components every flight, because none ended in disaster. But subtle degradation is disastrous when you approach the long-term. Class attendance drops off over the semester, and suddenly you’re feeling helpless for the impending final. That child becomes a monster. And NASA didn’t have a disaster on its hand, until it did.

I think this behavioral model is a lot more powerful than its given credit for or for the limited scope its been applied to. The slippage in mortgage lending standards was normalization of deviance. Enron was normalization of deviance. Making friends with the wrong crowd creates normalization of deviance. Bitterness with age is normalization of deviance.

Applied to organizations, Vaughan states:

People within the organization become so much accustomed to a deviant behaviour that they dont consider it as deviant, despite the fact that they far exeeed their own rules for the elementary safety. But it is a complex process with some kind of organizational acceptance. The people outside see the situation as deviant whereas the people inside get accustomed to it and do not. The more they do it, the more they get accustomed.

Next time you hear about something disastrous that “all of a sudden happened,” I’m willing to bet there was a trail of deviation from a once high norm. That goes for peoples personal lives as well. Any time I’ve had a moment where I went “how the hell did I get here?” I found myself tracing back the weak signals I missed, and other subtle triggers that were signs of lower standards/performance being normalized.  And I think Vaughan is correct in that people on the outside can see the deviance a lot clearer than yourself, who’s become acclimated. Getting friends to unabashedly evaluate your habits might be an insightful thing to try.

I’ll end with a quote from Samuel Johnson, that sums up nicely the above:

The chains of habit are too weak to be felt until they are too strong to be broken.


I found Scott Adams recent blog post on Future Jobs quite interesting. He believes technical competency will always have a secure foothold in the marketplace, but if you are not technically inclined – learning the art of human persuasion is a good asset to have. I agree with this, especially since his definition of human persuasion is broad enough to cover not only sales, psychology, and public speaking, but design, management theory and entertainment as well.

The post made the front page of HackerNews a few days ago, and one of the top posts is by ramit, who seems to have an ideal background for what Adams suggests:

My major was STS (Science, Technology, and Society) with a minor in psychology. Then I studied sociology in grad school.

What I focused on was social influence, persuasion, and behavioral change. I took courses on negotiation, deception, cults, magic, minority influence, organizational development, group dynamics, arbitration, personality/social psychology, persuasive technology, and a ton more. I was a researcher in the Stanford Persuasive Technology Lab for years.

And I mixed it with practical applications of negotiations in the field.

The coursework has helped me dramatically in understanding the motivations, attitudes, and behaviors of others.

I still remember one of my Comm professors talking about how other technical disciplines tend to look down on areas like psych/comm. She said something I’ll never forget: “The value isn’t in the difficulty of the material, but the usefulness.”

Love the last quote. To expand on what Adams is proposing, I’m going to assume he agrees with me in that the point of education should be to ultimately provide skills and knowledge that will generate the most productive future output for individuals. In this light, its obvious that technical competency and human persuasion will be as relevant in 50 years as they are today. This is what most educational institutions mean when they claim they want to “teach you how to think.” Whether they teach that in earnest is up for debate, but the idea is correct. If you look at education as an investment, it will be hard to predict 10, 20, or 30 years out which particular sets of domain knowledge will be most critical to possess. What you want is to get good at the ability to acquire such knowledge if you need to, and to do that you need to become good at thinking. Teach a man to fish.

So why does Adams think science/engineering and human persuasion sit at the top? What they have in common is that they offer reliable models of reality. They have predicative power and contain insightful metaphors for a vast array of phenomena.

Here are some examples:

People generally behave in terms of their own self-interest. They also experience incentive-caused bias. When you separate those who take the risks from those who get the rewards, you will get excessive behavior. When persuading, appeal to a person’s interest, and not reason.

Systems Thinking is a problem solving methodology in engineering that treats cause and effect in cyclical manner rather than a linear one. You examine and focus on an entire system, rather than one specific pain point. One considers second- and third-order effects. A non-engineering application of this idea is to economics – the easing of long-term federal interest rates not to long ago. The subsequent effects, the shift in incentives, created disastrous second- and third-order effects.

Margin of Safety is a structural engineering concept. If you’re building a bridge, it makes sense to build it with extra capacity beyond the maximum loads you expect it to receive. Its a measure of robustness, able to handle unexpected loads, emergency situations, and any other random variable not accounted for. Value investor Ben Graham adopted this idea in his investing practice, buying securities priced below its intrinsic value. This minimized the risk of losing excess capital and factored in room for error in the inherently imprecise manner of evaluating a company’s intrinsic value.

In a sense, if you study these topics, you will be able to understand and explain a wide range of phenomena and actions. Obviously, the next question is, what are some other skills and knowledge one should spend the time to learn?  Here are some I have in mind:

Science/Engineering and Human Psychology/Persuasion, as stated above.

History/Biographies – I think this is incredibly important. Not only does it make learning specific topics more interesting (for example, I’m studying probability at the moment, and reading about the history, how it came to be, and the mathematicians who contributed to the field all paint a much vivid picture of the topic vs. the excessively distilled formal and rigorous proofs I’m shown in the first few chapters of my textbook), but its a gold mine for lessons of failure, wisdom, and success. Did you know Mozart spent his money like a drunken sailor?  That Carl Braun of the CF Braun Engineering company fired his accountants and had his engineers develop a system that eventually influenced the way modern accounting works?

Economics/Business/Financial History – History interpreted through the lens of finance is such an interesting topic. For anyone interested, I highly recommend the 4 hour PBS documentary, Ascent of Money as a entertaining and informative way to get started.

Philosophy/Rationality – Understanding the history of influential thinking that shape societal values, thoughts and sense of purpose. Studying philosophy as a way to manage temperament, and thinking systematically about one’s problems.

Would love to get feedback and more topics you think one should devote to studying.

Sebastian Marshall made an awesome post recently, titled “Steps to Achievement: The Pitfalls, Costs, Requirements, and Timelines.” I’m actually going to set aside time to read it over again a few times and internalize it, because its beaming with great notions and strategies. Many of the links he provides in the post are also quite helpful.

Many popular careers have a linear path. For example, becoming a doctor or lawyer is a very streamlined process. There’s schooling, followed by work experience/research, followed by admission tests (mcat/lsat) and application process, then professional schooling, then internship/residency, and on and on. It’s all very organized and structured. If you have chosen a career or goal that doesn’t have such a linear trajectory, I think Sebastian’s post is a very valuable exercise to do.

But I think there’s also an underlying point in this post, and that is this: if you’re smart and hard working, you can get to where you want to go in the most efficient manner possible. I imagine the process as being half scientist, and half ship captain. You have to mesh the process of exploration, discovery, fact checking, and theorem proving with the pragmatics of steering, managing short-term and long-term issues, risk management, and ultimately getting from A to B in one piece.

One thing I’ve noticed in this list is, it doesn’t call for supernatural abilities. I can’t imagine anyone not being able to apply these set of thought patterns to their circumstance, no matter what their particular talents. A fitting quote is one from architect Joshua Prince-Ramus, of REX Architecture (known for Seattle Public Library):

Architecture is not created by individuals. The genius sketch… is a myth. Architecture is made by a team of committed people who work together, and in fact, success usually has more to do with dumb determination than with genius.

I think its the same for individual goals as it is for architecture. It has more to do with dumb determination than statistically high levels of IQ, or some particular talent. Sebastian’s post, and the linked posts to Less Wrong create a great framework for anyone to get started on their goals. The careers listed above and other professional careers usually utilize a top-down approach, breaking goals into discrete steps (schooling -> experience -> specialized schooling -> experience).  For goals that are more open-ended problems (with many solutions and paths to those solutions), these posts identify the major base elements for creating an emergent process you can continually fine tune as you progress on your goals.

I’d also like to add two points that work for me as well:

Rethink First Principles: If your goal is A, you’ll probably become aware of the standard/common ways people before you have reached A. This will seem like the most pragmatic method for getting there yourself. But sometimes, it is helpful to rethink if the common strategy is most efficient for your particular situation/skillsets.

A few examples: If your goal was to become a Value Investor, you might recognize the way most people break in is to get into a top undergraduate B-school -> work in investment banking for two years -> get an MBA from a top school, preferably one that focuses on value investing (Columbia) -> get a job at a value fund. Or to copy someone like Warren Buffett’s path, which many people try to do.  One of the most interesting examples of someone questioning first principles in this arena was Mike Burry, of Scion Capital, who was featured in Michael Lewis’s “The Big Short.” He was a medical resident when he started investing. He realized that even though Warren Buffett is the most successful value investor in history, his approach wouldn’t work for Burry. It was this same awareness that led him to utilized credit-default swaps, venturing out of the ‘typical’ area of value investors, which generated his astounding returns.

Another example is one I found on reddit. thedevilyousay makes an interesting comment, on the topic of someone wanting to leave law school for the pursuit of film school:

One of the alumni of my law school created (and is the operating mind behind) one of the most successful television shows of the past decade. His advice is to be smart and to put yourself out there. I heard a quip once about the fallacy of people thinking they need film/TV school to get into the industry. I can’t remember what his exact words were, but it was something along the lines of “That’s what you do when you know you can’t hack it.”

I also went to school with a friend whose goal was always to be in film. He never wanted to be a lawyer. He went to law school because he suspected it would better position him in the industry. He focused on entertainment law, criminal law (for the Hollywood factor), and did some tax (the movie industry is very tax driven), alternative dispute resolution (the problem-solving factor), and negotiation (obvious). He is now arguably the most successful out of our whole group. He is a writer primarily, but his competency is so apparent that he’s also tasked with more executive roles with every project he does.

The last example is of my own. I’m currently in attempts to break into an industry where hard science PhD’s are the standard. It is a relatively new industry and academia is not yet the place of expertise and the cutting edge. After speaking with multiple folks who work in the industry, I’ve realized pursuing a PhD (which would take 5+ years) would not be the most efficient use of my time. I’d be able to break in, at a lower level, and work my way up and in those 5 years, be in a much better position. This has made my goals for the next few months much more terse and dense with skills I’d have to pick up. I have given up the better paved and safer path for one that is riskier, but of higher efficiency and lower opportunity cost.

Avoiding Standard Error: Being a sloth and unreliable create such an asymmetrical negative payoff for what little upsides they bring you. So does fostering addiction or dependency, letting impulsions go unchecked, or being envious or resentful. So does not studying or taking seriously your susceptibility to the natural cognitive biases we all have. If you set out to eliminate standard error, or things that can inherently cloud your judgement, you may realize the low-hanging fruit thats occasionally up for grabs that others might overlook.

I hope these two points can add in a modest way to the points linked above. But to reiterate what I like about this approach is, its quite amateur, and I mean that in a positive way. It admits to a lack of professionalism and polish, and nor does it constrain you to one particular set of goals. Its simply a set of tools you should include in your repertoire as a trail blazer.

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